Tom Clancy, Man Your Typewriter

Jed Babbin on the coming war with Iran:

To attack Iran's nuclear capability, the president would have to risk what has been accomplished in Iraq. If an Israeli attack were made, the Israeli and Iranian air forces -- and missile exchanges -- would cross Iraqi skies. Because the antagonists' ground forces are unable to enter each others' territory, Iranian ground forces could enter southern Iraq at the invitation of radical Shia such as Moqtada al-Sadr. If an American attack on Iran were decisive -- destroying not only the nuclear capability but also decapitating the mullahs' regime -- the Iraqi Shia would not have the motive to use military force against the Sunni minority and Iran wouldn't be able to force them to do so. The Iraqi Shia are Arabs, not Persians, and aren't willing to submit themselves to Persian rule. But if an attack didn't clearly destroy the Iranians' nuclear capability, the Iraqi Shia could be forced to attack the Sunni and demand American withdrawal. A very large war will have begun that could again array all of Israel's neighbors (save only Iraq) against it. Israel barely survived its last major war in 1973. It may not survive this one.


THE WAR WITH IRAN WILL have to be fought and we will, of course, defend Israel as best we can. But much bloodshed can be avoided, and Iran's nuclear objective put out of reach if we seize the advantage we gave up to Saddam in the UN. Surprise is a strategic advantage we must retain.

The alternative to a large war, which no one speaks about, is a surprise attack against Iran mounted before Israel acts, and before the predicted Iranian nuclear test happens. Such an attack would employ several unconventional weapons at once and could -- if managed properly -- be over before Iran knows it has begun. The world must know that we have done it. But after, not before.

It may be that Iran's Chinese allies are doing more than helping develop its missiles. It may be that Iran's Russian trading partner is doing more than providing defenses against air attack. But neither is likely to be providing Iran with the means of effectively defending against our other capabilities.

It could, and should, be made one dark night. B-2 stealth bombers, each carrying twenty ground-penetrating guided munitions, can destroy much of Iran's nuclear facilities and government centers. Some might carry reported electro-magnetic pulse weapons that can destroy all the electronic circuits that comprise Iranian missiles, key military communications and computer facilities. And it may be that we have the ability to attack Iran's military and financial computer networks with computer viruses and "Trojan horses" that will make it impossible for Iran to function militarily and economically. Our strategy must be implemented before Ahmadinejad can test his nukes. Whether that test can happen next month or next year is immaterial. The time for us to act is now.

Given the incredibly weak performance of the CIA in the War on Terror, I don't think we ought to trust Langley for targeting. Mossad's probably got much better information for targeting. Expect lots of indignant leaks from CIA and State once we start using info from real professionals.