Nuclear Japan? Maybe Not

This may be what's behind Condi Rice's assertion that Japan remains under the American nuclear umbrella:

AFTER THE MOST RECENT North Korean mischief, the question is more germane than ever: Will the Japanese seriously debate going nuclear? A raft of evidence would seem to suggest so. For one thing, the hawkish Abe is now prime minister. This past
summer, when North Korea launched several missiles into the Sea of Japan, he said that Tokyo should expand discussion of a preemptive strike capability--which, according to Abe, passed constitutional muster.

Then, last month, Yasuhiro Nakasone, who served as prime minister from 1982 to 1987, told the Australian that Japanese nukes might be needed should the U.S. security umbrella ever prove tenuous. "Whether or not the U.S. will maintain the same attitude is unpredictable," said the 88-year-old Nakasone. "There is a need to study the option of nuclear weapons." He made those remarks prior to North Korea's latest provocation. "Nakasone does not advocate acquiring nuclear weapons," stressed the Australian correspondent, "but says [Japan] must study the possibility."

Yet when Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test, Prime Minister Abe struck a different note. "We have no intention of changing our policy that possessing nuclear weapons is not our option," he told the Japanese parliament on October 10th. "There will be no change in our non-nuclear arms principles. We want to seek a solution through peaceful and diplomatic means."

Abe had to reiterate these comments on October 16th, a day after Shoichi Nakagawa, policy chief of the ruling Liberal Democratic party, said that a nuclear debate should be actively pursued. Speaking to reporters in Tokyo, Abe rejected such a debate, affirming that Japan's three anti-nuclear principles--banning the "possession, production, and presence" of nuclear weapons on Japanese soil--would not be altered.

Talk of a "nuclear Japan" is thus premature. Those who have sounded off against the idea, such as former Australian prime minister Paul Keating, can rest easy, for now. "I think it's very unlikely," says Michael Green, a senior National Security Council official from 2001 to 2005. "That taboo is still very strong," both "among the general population and among the conservative leadership."