What's Iran Up To?

Jed Babbin ponders:

If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were ready to precipitate the return of the Twelfth Imam, nuclear weapons would already have gone off in the sky over Tel Aviv. Obviously unprepared to commence a conclusive war, the Iranian apocalyptic chose to use Iran's surrogate, Hizballah, to precipitate a limited war between Israel and the Lebanese democracy-cum-terrorist regime of which Hizballah is a part. Why now, and to what end? Knowing Iran's ambition to become the hegemon of a new Islamic caliphate, following its foreign policy as closely as we can, we must conclude that this campaign is a dress rehearsal for something Iran plans for the future, near or distant. In that context, we have to view Secretary Rice's trip to the Middle East this week with skepticism if not alarm.

Just a few months ago, Iran's "Great Prophet" war games tested the regime's Chinese-built command and control systems and proved Iran could launch missiles from at least two independent command centers. It proved Iranian naval forces could close the Strait of Hormuz (through which most of the West's non-Iranian oil flows) for some time. What it didn't prove was that the Iranian regime could survive a non-nuclear American attack. Let's not pussyfoot around it. When Russia completes delivery to Iran of the thirty copies of its TOR M-1 antiaircraft missile system later this year, no nation that lacks stealth aircraft will be able to do much to Iran without launching nuclear weapons on ballistic missiles. That narrows it down to us and China. And the Chinese aren't about to hit their best Middle Eastern ally.

China has stealth aircraft?