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"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last."
Sir Winston Churchill

9.19.2006

The Myth of Iran's "Oil Weapon"

Iran has threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz and send oil prices skyrocketing to bring us to our knees. Nonsense:

Don’t believe it. Certainly Iran’s leaders are unhinged enough to try making good on one of those two promises. Either action would send oil soaring, perhaps well over $100 per barrel. Gasoline would spike too, perhaps to $5 or $6 per gallon. The dirty little secret about Iran’s threats, however, is though they might cause some pain, they wouldn’t cripple our economy. The American economic engine is too strong to be brought to its knees by Iran’s machinations, and the weapon Tehran threatens to wield is not as menacing as they would have us believe.


The far more likely outcome is the U.S. Navy destroying Iranian small craft and mines and blockading Iran, making its own receipt of refined petroleum much more difficult. An aerial interdiction campaign would make pipelines useless and turn gasoline trucks (and there'd have to be lots of these at a few thousand gallons a piece to supply Tehran) into desert candles.

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