Hold the Presses---Teflon Agrees with John Derbyshire

When he's right, he's right:

Way I see it, Stanley, we are rolling forward on iron rails.

---The Grand Bargain will not bring forth any effective sanctions; or, if it does, they will quickly be undermined by powers (want me to name a couple?) who believe they have a right to do anything they can get away with doing, without much reference to any document they may have signed their names to in some prior episode of responsible-statesmanship posturing; and who do not perceive getting the U.S.A. off any hook as being among their vital national interests.

---There will be no consensus in the US (let alone anywhere else) for military action.

---Iran will go nuclear; then, two to five years later, thermonuclear.

---There will be no consensus in the US (let alone anywhere else) for military action.

---Neighboring big states (Egypt, S.A., Turkey) will go nuclear.

---A bomb or two will be misplaced, stolen, or handed off to some nonstate actor.

---A Western city will be destroyed.

---There will then be a consensus for military action... which, given that the big ME players are now all robustly nuclear, will unfortunately be impossible.

That is what is going to happen, Stanley. Iron rails.

And the hell of it is no one in our government seems to give a rat's behind about this prospect. Certainly not enough to do anything about it.