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"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last."
Sir Winston Churchill

12.12.2006

The Countdown to World War III Continues

Let's connect some dots, shall we?

Iran's president calls for the destruction of Israel at a Holocaust deniers' conference:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday told delegates at an international conference questioning the Holocaust that Israel's days were numbered.

Ahmadinejad, who has sparked international outcry by referring to the killing of six million Jews in World War Two as a "myth" and calling for Israel to be "wiped off the map", launched another verbal attack on the Jewish state.

"Thanks to people's wishes and God's will the trend for the existence of the Zionist regime is downwards and this is what God has promised and what all nations want," he said.

"Just as the Soviet Union was wiped out and today does not exist, so will the Zionist regime soon be wiped out," he added.


Russia's helping the Iranian nuclear program:

The head of the Russian state company building a nuclear plant in Iran urged Tehran on Tuesday to keep up payments to complete construction as scheduled, news reports said.
The statement from Atomstroiexport's chief, Sergei Shmatko, was the strongest signal yet of financial disputes over the Bushehr nuclear plant.

Shmatko said on a trip to Tehran that his company would start delivering nuclear fuel for the plant in March 2007, prior to its launch in September, provided that the Iranians provide stable financing to fulfill the contract signed in 1995. He said preparations for the fuel deliveries would start in January.


Russian dictator Vladimir Putin seizes Western energy assets in Russia (note that his regime is funded by his nationalization of oil):

Foreign energy companies will be welcome in future as subcontractors but not as owners in Russia’s energy industry, the Kremlin signalled yesterday as Gazprom moved closer towards wresting control of Sakhalin-2, the giant Siberian gas project, from Royal Dutch Shell.

The Russian gas giant confirmed that Shell had made a new proposal in negotiations over Gazprom’s participation in Sakhalin Energy, the company building a $20 billion (£10.2 billion) liquefied natural gas scheme in Eastern Siberia.

The project has been beset by claims and threats of prosecution from Rosprirodnadzor, the Russian environmental control agency, a campaign that is seen by Moscow energy analysts as calculated to weaken Shell’s negotiating position.

Sources within Moscow suggest that Gazprom will acquire 50 per cent plus one share of the Sakhalin Energy company, reducing Shell’s stake to 25 per cent, from 55 per cent. Mitsui and Mitsubishi, the current minority investors, would see their stakes reduced further.

Mounting pressure on Shell to concede control of Sakhalin Energy to Gazprom has coincided with nationalist sentiment. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for President Vladimir Putin, yesterday said that the environment had changed and Russian companies no longer needed foreign help.


Israel's premier has a "slip of the tongue" similar to incoming American SecDef Robert Gates:

A slip of the tongue by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert about Israel's nuclear policy ballooned into a domestic crisis Tuesday for the Israeli leader, who came under criticism from across the political spectrum.

In an interview with a German television station broadcast Monday, Olmert appeared to list Israel among the world's nuclear powers, violating the country's long-standing policy of not officially acknowledging that it has atomic weapons.

Asked by the interviewer about Iran's calls for the destruction of Israel, Olmert replied that Israel has never threatened to annihilate anyone.

"Iran openly, explicitly and publicly threatens to wipe Israel off the map," Olmert said. "Can you say that this is the same level, when you are aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel, Russia?"

Israel, which foreign experts say has the sixth-largest nuclear arsenal in the world, has stuck to a policy of ambiguity on nuclear weapons for decades, refusing to confirm or deny whether it has them.

The comments came days after incoming Defense Secretary Robert Gates, in testimony to a Senate committee, identified Israel as a nuclear power.


Here are the implications:

1. Russia's ex-KGB strongman has reestablished autocracy in Russia by leveraging huge oil revenues.

2. Russia has strengthened its ties with Iran, seeking more crude from Iran via a proposed pipeline to Russia.

3. In return, Russia has aided Iranian nuclear and military programs and stymied U.S. efforts to impose sanctions on Iran.

4. In response, America and Israel have clarified Israel's position as a nuclear power, obviously hoping to provide deterrence against an Iranian nuclear attack.

5. Iran continues to use Hezbollah as a proxy to probe and strike Israel from Lebanon.

6. Iran's leader promises an end to Israel "soon."

Here's how I think the endgame will play out:

1. Once Iran has sufficient nuclear capability (10-15 weapons), Iranian cadres within Hezbollah will be armed with warheads.

2. Hezbollah will attack Israel from Lebanon, possibly with short-range ballistic missiles topped with nuclear warheads, possibly with a manual detonation within Israel or offshore. Emphasis will be disabling an Israeli retaliatory strike.

3. The Russian navy will attempt to wipe out Israeli nuclear submarines.

4. Iran will either threaten to attack or attack New York or Washington with nuclear weapons through Hezbollah. It is also possible that Hezbollah would detonate a weapon within the Sunni areas of Iraq, taking out a portion of the U.S. Army and Air Force and blunting the chance of an American retaliatory strike on Iran.

5. Iran will publicly disavow knowledge of Hezbollah's action and claim to have severed ties with them.

6. The U.S. will either strike Hezbollah or not strike at all. With Iran's play being backed by Russia, the likelihood of a direct strike at Iran is low.

7. Our president will need to choose between avenging Israel and losing one or more American cities or accepting the new balance of power in the Middle East.

8. If this looks successful, China will seek a similar play using North Korea and threatening our west coast.

9. End state is Israel destroyed, Iran the hegemon of the Middle East, possibly China as Asian hegemon, NATO greatly diminished, America no longer a superpower.

This is where I think we're headed. A nuclear arsenal and the world's finest fighting force are useless if you lack the will to deploy them or the intelligence to aim them. Our enemies have gotten quite good at playing on both.

4 Comments:

Blogger THIRDWAVEDAVE said...

This theory, I think, is very close, if not spot on, to what we are going to face in the near future. The only thing that needs to be mentioned in the countdown, is a move on Taiwan.

Sobering. Very sobering.

7:29 PM  
Blogger DANEgerus said...

Iran will have a lot of enriched uranium before they have plants to consume it and before they can shape it into functional warheads.

So the first "10-15" weapons are likely to be dirty-bombs.

I'd guess Jerusalem would be a likely target.

Also... the Soviets were reluctant to put their own lives on the line and the Russians are a mere shadow of that former force.

The naval resources are insufficient to challenge Israel and the American Navy would enthusiastically, and decisively, intervene as naval operations are always on a near-war footing by their nature.

Plus... it's a tidy kind of war without civilian casualties.

Also, if China overplays their hand with the NorKs then Japan goes nuclear and rearms.

In none of the scenerios is the USA reduced to non-Superpower status.

But here is one. vote (D)emocrat.

That is the surest way to cut off America's balls.

7:40 PM  
Blogger THIRDWAVEDAVE said...

Sobering stuff you've posted. Too bad you're probably right.

10:58 PM  
Blogger Jihadnews said...

Agree totally and sadly...did you see the NYT Op Ed Piece today (Sunday) where Robert Grenier suggest that the only appropriate thing to stablize Lebanon would be to integrate the "progressive and moderating" influence of Hezbollah? Ugh!
There's a link to it from my blog
jihadophobic.blogspot.com

1:55 PM  

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