Musharraf Moves In

We'll see how this plays out, but my guess is Musharraf's a goner:

Musharraf clearly accepted Rice's suggestions for he not only canceled the emergency plans but also flew to Kabul on Sunday. He proceeded to give an impassioned speech that stunned the attendees and observers. "There is no doubt," he said. "Afghan militants are supported from Pakistan."

This was the first time there has been an official admission of Taliban aid and sanctuary being obtained in Pakistan. It was a striking gesture by Musharraf not only in political terms, but personally toward the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai. The smile in assent on Karzai's face told the whole story. None of this was lost on the over 600 hundred tribal representatives in attendance.

The purpose of a large gathering such as this jirga is to allow certain ideas and concepts to be discussed without commitment. Long-standing feuds are settled by group arbitration and contentious issues are debated openly while deals are made on a myriad of levels -- all confidential, if not blood secret. It's the way of that part of the world. At the same time Musharraf wants to remain under the protective American umbrella. That means taking a tougher line with the mountain tribes.

The security of the border regions of the Northwest Frontier, Baluchistan, Waziristan, etc. is first the responsibility of the Frontier Corps. It is among these units that one will find the great regimental names of the British Raj. The South Waziristan Scouts have been assigned to their area for many decades, and they are virtually all locally recruited.

The problem with this system is that in recent years a divided loyalty has been created among the troops when it came to policing their own tribal areas. The S. Waziri Scouts obviously know their region well. Often their officers and noncoms are related to tribal notables. Great for intelligence, lousy for loyalty to the central government...

Musharraf shifted in regular army regiments and the result was greater loyalty but lousy intelligence. He has been stopped cold by this problem. The local Waziri tribes worked closely with mujahedin during the Afghan-Soviet war. Al Qaeda fighters are seen as the new mujahedin and they are thusly protected.

The fastest way for Iran to get nukes is from Pakistan. Keep that in mind as we watch the machinations play out in Pakistan.