The Next Ruler of Iraq?

Iran's man on the scene, Moqtada al Sadr:

What is newly developing, however, is a recognition of the objective of Muktada al-Sadr's ambition. The rival Badr Militia, loyal to Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Sayid al-Hakim, seek to control the southern provinces' oil producing areas along with a share of power in metropolitan Baghdad. Al-Sadr, on the other hand, appears to be willing to settle for nothing less than being the leader of all Iraq.

Behind the scenes Muktada al-Sadr has made sporadic covert attempts to reach out to willing Sunni tribal groupings wherever he might find them. As contradictory as this effort may appear, he has gone so far as to refer to his Badr militia rivals as "Persians," thus seeking to curry favor with Sunnis who use that term to revile those they hate. At the same time, al-Sadr appears to have been covering his other flank during the several months of the spring and summer when he was not seen in public but was rumored to be in Iran.

It has been suggested that last week's call by al-Sadr for a six-month moratorium on attacks by the Mahdi Army and their allies on fellow Iraqis, including Sunnis, is, in part, another ploy to gain political acceptance from the increasingly anti-al Qaeda Sunni tribes. Interestingly, this temporary cease-fire also is consistent with the timing of American "surge" objectives.

The political and denominational competition among the Shia militias, however, has not received the attention deserved by their ferocity, and it may be that Muktada al-Sadr's announced moratorium was aimed primarily at quelling that fratricide. In any case, al-Sadr's surprise declaration has brought attention back to him at a time when Iraq is contemplating the departure of the American forces.

The Iranian game is clear to all with eyes to see. They want the Americans out, and they want a proxy regime in Iraq similar to the ones they have in Syria and Lebanon. This is how they intend to rebuild the Caliphate---one subject people at a time.