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"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last."
Sir Winston Churchill

11.04.2007

Keep Your Eye On Pakistan This Week

The unrest is about one thing and one thing only: who controls Pakistan's nuclear weapons.

It provides ample smokescreen for Pakistani nuclear scientists and intelligence officials sympathetic if not wholly owned by Al Qaeda and/or the Iranian Intelligence Service to transfer material and knowledge to Tehran.

With much more attention focused right now on North Korea in the wake of the Israeli raid on their Syrian facility, Iran will seek to get material if not warheads from Pakistan.

Always remember that nuclear capability is very difficult to develop, and that Iran has considerably less resources than America had allocated to the Manhattan Project. Moreover, Iran is trying to develop these capabilities while not drawing too much attention.

The end around option for Iran has always been to procure nuclear weapons rather than develop them. This is why Iran has cozied up to cash-strapped Kim Jong-Il. It is why Iran remains active in Pakistan.

Watch the reports on Pakistan for any sign of odd break-ins or compromise of nuclear material.

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3 Comments:

Blogger Cullen said...

Fox news just carried a story on this very topic. Very prescient of you. And a very scary thought. Always thought we backed the wrong pony with our negotiations in hte Pakista vs. India days.

4:18 PM  
Blogger Vigilis said...

Linked to your post last night, Teflon. Excellent point.

12:28 PM  
Blogger Teflon said...

Thanks, Cullen and Vig---wish I were completely off the mark here, though.

Pakistan is estimated to have about 75 nuclear weapons. If these estimates came from the CIA, they either have zero or hundreds.

Given that Pakistani nuclear scientists have been caught proliferating nuclear technology and know-how, I believe that Iran has likely outsourced big chunks of its own development to the Norks and the Pakis. Despite sitting on an ocean of oil, Iran is pretty cash-strapped. My guess is she cannot afford to both purchase and independently fund development of such technology; it's too massive an expenditure to do both. She may simply be looking to purchase warheads (thus the Iranian observers at the Nork nuclear test some months ago---Iran may have demanded proof the warhead design works prior to purchasing any); in which case the development facilities are merely a diversion to hide and protect the warheads she has.

3:30 PM  

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