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"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last."
Sir Winston Churchill

1.09.2008

The Oprahfication of America Continues

That's the consensus of last night's Clinton win in New Hampshire. Since Oprah herself is campaigning for Obama, however, this seems to be true of the Democrat primary season as a whole rather than confined to any one Dem candidate.

Hillary's 4 key advantages in NH.

RealClearPolitics disagrees with the notion that Hillary's faux tears turned the day:

Some pundits will probably reference Saturday's debate or Clinton's near-crying moment as reasons she surged late. The exit polling does not back this up. Obama won voters who decided sometime between a month and three days ago. And the two split voters who decided today - 39% to Clinton, 36% to Obama. Clinton dominated among voters who said they decided earlier than a month ago, 48% to 31%.

This supports the idea that Clinton won by mobilizing the traditional Democratic coalition that is demographically inclined to her. You don't just win elections by persuading people you're the best candidate. You win elections by getting those people out to the polls. This appears to be what Clinton did. Accordingly - the implication is that the polls were wrong not because of last-minute shifts. They were wrong because they underestimated Clinton's ability to draw out her base.


Of course, their analysis is silent on the potential for vacilation from Hillary to Obama in the wake of Iowa. If I were a Hillary supporter, then began to reconsider following Iowa, but remained a Hillary supporter following her crocodile tears press conference, I would be able to say I'd decided pre-Iowa to support her.

I think few Democrats want to admit that a witch's tears secured their vote. Given the success of Oprah, I have no doubt that this was in fact the case in New Hampshire. The good news is the phony tearjerker will also doom Hillary among southerners in particular.

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