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"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last."
Sir Winston Churchill

8.21.2006

Where Have All the Cowboys Gone?

Iran getting nukes? So what?

Mark Levin:

I think it is now clear that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons and no one will stop it.

The U.S. response to Hezbollah, an arm of the Iranian military, demonstrates a lack of will to confront militarily Iran. The U.S. has now bought into the elusion — urged by the U.N., Europe, and domestic liberals — that diplomacy will somehow contain the Iranian regime. This is a fundamental and fatal shift by the administration. For all the talk in support of the Bush Doctrine and preemption, the administration has effectively rejected them. And the Democracy Project is not possible if the will to first destroy the enemy is not backed up by military action intended to defeat the enemy.

In the last several weeks, we've seen a stunning reversal of both rhetoric and actions by the administration. The Israeli-Hezbollah-Iranian-Syrian battle provided the U.S. with a perfect opportunity to land a devastating blow against the Axis of Evil. It became painfully evident soon after the battle began that Olmert was not up to the task. The U.S. should have urged on Israel's government, not merely buy it time. Instead, after a few weeks we dramatically reversed course and led a frenzied (indeed, bizarre) diplomatic effort with the French and the UN to cobble together a phony ceasefire deal that handed the enemy a military and propaganda victory. The U.S.-negotiated ceasefire plan places the entire burden for compliance on Israel. Moreover, the terrorists bear no burden and their state sponsors go unscathed.

And let me be blunt: If the U.S. was serious about winning the war on terrorism, which means destroying the Iranian regime, the time to take military action against Iran was when Israel was moving against Hezbollah. Yes, I know this is controversial, but it ought not be — unless, of course, the U.S. has no intention of stopping Iran, no intention of using military force against Iran, and is committed to a defeatist diplomatic agenda. The time to strike Iran was while it was engaged on another front (southern Lebanon) and before its acquisition of nuclear weapons.


The only reason I can think of for Bush's stunning volte-face on international terrorism and unwillingness to confront Iran and her henchmen WHEN THE U.S. MILITARY IS PARKED NEXT DOOR is that Iran already has nuclear weapons to deploy.

Look at a map. How on Earth do you explain our inability to exploit our central position in the Middle East to wipe out the Syrians and Iranians? Keep in mind that neither are first-rate opponents; Iran fought Iraq (same folks we mopped the floor with twice) to a draw and the Syrians got skunked by the Israelis. The only thing these people do well is terrorism. Without a state sponsor, they won't be able to do even that well (keep in mind that the Iraqi insurgency is being run from Tehran, not Fallujah or Baghdad).

What on Earth is Bush thinking right now?

5 Comments:

Blogger linearthinker said...

How on Earth do you explain our inability to exploit our central position in the Middle East to wipe out the Syrians and Iranians?

The map gave graphic evidence for the underlying wisdom of taking out Iraq as early as spring of '03.

I'm bewildered by Bush. The only thing that resonates is that the constant badgering and anklebiting he's endured from left has taken its toll, and that's not encouraging. I only hope Bush has better information than I have, and is making good decisions...but, as time passes and he piles one feckless policy on the last, I'm beginning to lose confidence.

OT: I've figured out Armani Dinnerjacket's obsession with August 22.

It's Norman Schwarzkopf's birthday!

What's Farsi for "Happy Birthday, Dear Norman, Happy Birthday to you"?

LT

6:03 AM  
Blogger Teflon said...

LT-

Bush's actions make no sense to me if we aim to win the War on Terror and to prevent the mullahs from getting nukes.

The only thing that fits would be if we know they already have them and are pursuing a containment policy much like we did with the Soviets---treading very carefully and trying not to get them so wound up that they lob a nuke into Baghdad or Jerusalem.

If the latter is the case, we would expect to see a greater concentration of AF and naval airpower in the region as well as the deployment of more antimissile systems. We would also expect increased CIA activity to destabilize the regime, but given the treasonous activity of a number of senior officials at Langley since 9/11, that may simply be impossible at this point.

The latter also raises a Tom Clancy-esque possibility---is it possible that the anti-Bush types at CIA have spun intelligence to lead the Administration to believe the mullahs have deployable nuclear weapons already to keep the U.S. from taking out the terror masters in Iran? It would have seemed paranoid before the slew of leaks before and after the Iraq War; now, less so.

9:16 AM  
Blogger linearthinker said...

Thoughts prompted by your "...pursuing a containment policy" observation:

Israel vs Hezbollah. Israel did better than conventional wisdom assesses. Lebanon and Hezbollah are now distractions for Tehran, rather than for the West, or at least the situation has cooled off.

Toss in potential for domestic unrest, demonstrations, protests, and riots within Iran. Iranian military spread thin internally.

US forces now targeting al-Sadr if I can believe what I read from Rick Moran. Two major proxies of Tehran are being dealt with, albeit unnecessarily painfully. Hind sight is always 20-20.

Assuming Tehran has the bomb, there are still questions of how many, reliability, and deliverability. They can't test it. Retaliation would be swift and sure if they used it, even if we didn't escalate to using our own nucs. No mystery there.

Short term containment may be a reasonable objective, say eleven weeks from today. Is eleven weeks enough time to quietly proceed with mobilization of naval and AF assets? Can anyone quietly mobilize anymore? I don't know.

Is Bush perhaps trying to keep several pots from boiling over before November 7? In my rational world, we'd have an opposition party that was not deranged and an objective media. Sadly, we don't live in my world. I'm conflicted, but continue to have faith in Bush. He's dealing with unprecedented levels of sedition and domestic political treachery. The Rick Moran link mentioned above is worth checking.

Regarding your Clancyesque scenario, it's only paranoia if you ignore recent history, as you noted. I'd include many in the Department of State and former NSC folks among the usual suspects, as well as a lengthy list of NGOs, too lengthy to enumerate here. I'll leave it there, lest I be cast among the conspiracy theorists.

Very interesting post.

LT

7:12 PM  
Blogger Vigilis said...

Very interesting post indeed, Teflon.

Regarding Levin's "How on Earth do you explain our inability to exploit our central position in the Middle East to wipe out the Syrians and Iranians?" Politics is not very palatable even when we are not are war.

Because like the world at large, the U.S. has a sizeable voting bloc of 1.7 million Arab/Muslims (who vote religiously), politicians are loath to offend them. Compare that bloc to smaller numbers votes contested by Gore in 2000. Politicians of all stripes have been stepping on eggshells to avoid offending resident Arabs (some of whom have been exceedingly helpful to our cause).

Once missiles fly into or bombs explode within the U.S., you will hear the rhetoric of WWII and Moslems related to or even loosely associated with terrorists will be rounded up. It is in the best interests of the others to assist as much as possible now. The others will face transition to the culture from whence the came.

What happens in Iran has already been foretold. Levin just won't believe it. Ahmadenajine will die in an innocent transportation accident (some of his nuclear experts will be with him).

8:43 PM  
Blogger Teflon said...

Great points both.

LT, you're right on about deployment, but the one truism of nuclear weapons is they don't have to be accurate. Suicide bombers need to get close to their targets, so security has some chance of preventing the attack, but one nuke on the outskirts of town is sufficient to ruin your whole day. I don't think the Iranians are anywhere near a point where they've got "suitcase nukes" (nor do I believe these exist, but that's another post), but they don't have to be. Even a large warhead could be loaded into a tractor trailer, a railcar, or a ship. Iran and their proxies have these things.

Here's the nightmare scenario: what happens if Hezbollah were to put an Iranian nuke in an old fishing boat, took it to just offshore from Haifa or Tel Aviv, and detonated it?

World outrage, to some extent, for some little while, I suspect, but ultimately:

1) Annan and his lot will find some way to blame Israel for the "provocation";

2) If any blame is to be focused on Hezbollah, it will be confined strictly to the Hezbollah leaders and not extend to the Syrians or Iranians;

3) The U.S. will not risk direct confrontation with Iran for fear of Iran lobbing more nukes into Israel using North Korean missiles

That's my thinking, anyway; I suspect that Israel's response would be nuclear and targeted at Lebanon, not Tehran, again for fear of losing more cities. Israel is too small to have an effective nuclear deterrent not guaranteed by the U.S. That's probably why ABM technology is so important to the Israelis.

Vig, I think you're spot on with the politics. Bush doesn't want to rock the boat on the November elections, as he knows that the war will be impossible to win if the Democrats take Congress. Moreover, P.C. concerns continue to predominate over security concerns. And to some extent, it's the President's fault---he hasn't spent enough time or energy driving home the threat.

I fervently hope we're all wrong, and that Dubya's going to pull the magic carpet out from under the mullahs shortly.

6:43 AM  

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