Is McCain Mr. Electable? Not So Fast

The GOP primary results are particularly interesting when you break it down by electoral votes and the 2004 presidential election results.

John McCain has won 12 states worth 199 electoral votes. Of these, only 5 are states Bush carried in 2004, worth just 63 electoral votes (meaning 136 votes went to the Democrats in 2004 in states McCain has won). McCain has received just 31.7% of his electoral votes in states Bush won in 2004.

Mitt Romney won 11 states worth 73 electoral votes. Of these, only 7 are states Bush won in 2004, worth just 31 electoral votes (the Democrats took the other 4 states' 42 electoral votes). Romney received just 42.5% of his electoral votes in states Bush won in 2004.

Mike Huckabee has won 7 states worth 59 electoral votes, all of which came from states Bush took in 2004. Huckabee received 100% of his electoral votes from states Bush won in 2004.

The implications are pretty startling.

Unless there is a blue state revolt in 2008, McCain is unlikely to equal Bush's 2004 performance. 2/3 of McCain's perceived electoral strength comes from blue states. Is it really likely that these states will become red at the sight of Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton? Given McCain's constant efforts to alienate and insult conservatives who in the past gave Bush his red state margins, is it really likely McCain will not hemorrhage red state votes, putting some of these in play for Democrats?

It's unlikely McCain's heading to Mondale '84 or McGovern '72 territory, but he'll be fortunate to beat Humphrey's 191 electoral votes in the 1968 election.

November should put to rest the myth of McCain's "electability" once and for all.